Gadhafi Dead, and after?

Virgil Hauguel

After is coup at 27 years old, in September 1969, Gadahfi more than anyone else gathered in his hand all the possible powers than a head of state can have, saying that he could never dismiss because he does not have any official title.

From the beginning, his relation with the occidental world are difficult, financing, during a certain time, the international terrorism (IRA, FARC, Lockerbie attack…) then these relations change after the terrorist attack of 11/9. Gaddafi condemned it and offers his help to fight Al-Qaeda. Indeed, we can’t eternally reject the head of state of a country so rich in oil. He also concluded an agreement to reduce the immigration toward Europe and his guarantor of a non Islamic Libya controlling with an iron fist. The occidental countries see in Gaddafi a friend, and he is welcomed to the Elysée in France which sell him weapons in particular software which allow him to spy his opponent, or a special car which will allow him to flee Tripoli in the hands of the rebels.

At the end of 2010, a young Tunisian burn himself to protest not against the polity but by economy despair. Following this, there are demonstrations against Ben Ali who will flee the country. Then it’s in Egypt that people demonstrate against Mubarak following the example of Tunis and succeed to bring down Mubarak’s regime. The occident his caught short and worry to see fall down these favorable leaders falling down so easily. Meanwhile, in Yemen, a civil war erupts and pacific demonstrations begin in Syria but everybody look at Libya. The occidental world and in particular France don’t want to miss an occasion or become ridiculous like in Tunisia (see Michel Alliot Marie offering the knowledge of the French police to Ben Ali). France and England become very active on the international scene while on Libya the fight between regular army and rebels intensify. This lead to a UN resolution: Libya’s money abroad is block, international mandates of arrest against the whole family and leaders of the regime and an aerial support coming from several countries of NATO.

At the end of august, after several month of stalemate, the rebels enter in the capital of Libya and then begin the battle of Tripoli. Few days later, the Gaddafi’s HQ falls but impossible to find Gaddafi. The TNC (Transitional National Council or political structure of the rebels) declare that Libya will only be free when Gaddafi will be arrested and the last cities in the hand of Gaddafi fall under the control of the rebels. On the 20th of October, after several weeks of fight, the native city of Gaddafi, Syrte, fall under the control of the rebels and Gaddafi dies in a convoy which was trying to escape.

But is Gaddafi’s death match with the end of the civil war and the establishment of a democracy? Do we need to remind that these rebels are civilian who have taken weapons overnight and learnt the solider work with little or no training and have no structural organization? What do we become this armed fighters in a country with the clan reference is so important? Hope that this war tired them enough to not solve their future disagreement by the use of force like they do against Gaddafi. And the leaders of the TNC, can we say that they all are from good faith or that some of them are opportunists who change their mind when the situation became more favorable for the rebels? Finally, what are the inherent risks in a country which have lived under a dictatorial regime during 42 years, destroyed by a civil war but having very important oil reserve? It is good to ask, like in the case of Kuwait in 1991, if the occidental world would have intervene military in the case of the national resources of Libya were carrots or potatoes? Nobody has missed this side of the war.

To conclude we can use a quotation of Winston Churchill which summarizes perfectly the situation of Libya today after the death of Gaddafi: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”.

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